Austin, Texas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

989
FXUS64 KEWX 151951
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
251 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, CLIMATE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 251 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025

Key Messages:

- A Heat Advisory is in effect for parts of South Central Texas
through 8 PM CDT this evening.

- New Heat Advisory is in effect from 2 to 7 PM CDT Friday for parts
of South Central Texas

- Isolated strong to marginally severe thunderstorms are possible
across parts of Burnet and Williamson Counties mid to late
Friday afternoon.

A few showers have managed to develop along the I-35 corridor and
parts of the Hill Country since mid to late morning into the
afternoon. This activity was not expected today, however, enough
forcing in place in the mid level for these showers to develop and
then go through a dry layer to make to the ground. Otherwise, the
heat continues to affect the local area with highs in the mid to
upper 90s across the Hill Country and I-35 corridor and from the 100
to 104 along the Rio Grande. Even though today`s highs are likely to
break daily high records, these values are likely to be cooler than
those temperatures forecasted during earlier forecast packages.

Low level moisture returns in the form of clouds and even patchy fog
over parts of the the coastal plains and southern Edwards Plateau
late tonight. Overnight lows are forecasted to range from the upper
60s across portions of the southern Edwards Plateau to mid 70s along
and east of the I-35 corridor and coastal plains.

Another hot day is in store for Friday with highs in the upper 90s
to 108 along the Rio Grande with heat index values as high as 111. A
Heat Advisory is in effect from 2 to 7 PM CDT Friday for areas
mainly along and east of the I-35 corridor and the southern portion
of the Rio Grande.

In addition to the heat, we could see strong to marginally severe
thunderstorms across portions of Burnet and Williamson Counties mid
to late afternoon. Main severe weather hazards being damaging winds
and large hail. Clouds increase in the evening through the overnight
period with lows in the 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 251 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025

The upper level ridge will flatten over the Gulf Friday into
Saturday. A weak shortwave in the southwest flow aloft is forecast to
move out of northwest Mexico and into northwest Texas on Saturday.
The weakened heights farther south, combined with the slightly
farther east progression of the dryline, will allow for low chances
(10-30%) of isolated showers and storms Saturday afternoon and
evening across the Hill Country and southern Edwards Plateau, as
well as into the higher terrain of Mexico which could cross the Rio
Grande. Mainly dry conditions are forecast Sunday and Monday. A
deeper trough moving through the Plains on Tuesday is forecast to
send a cold front into Tuesday night into Wednesday. The dryline
ahead of it may become active during the day Tuesday, producing low
chances (10-30%) of isolated showers and thunderstorms across the
Hill Country and I-35 corridor.


Above average temperatures and elevated heat index values continue
over the weekend and through Tuesday. There is lower confidence in
the strength of the front and temperatures behind it Wednesday and
Thursday. The forecast could be trending back towards normal values
for this time of year for Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1241 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025

VFR conditions are forecasted to remain through early overnight
period. Around 07Z/08Z Friday, MVFR cigs develop to affect the I-35
corridor terminals through about 16Z Friday. VFR conditions return
late morning and continue through Friday night. Southerly winds
prevail across the I-35 terminals through the forecast period. KDRT
has a wind shift to the northwest Friday afternoon in the wake of the
dryline.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 251 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025

RECORD MAX TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
(* TIED RECORD WITH MOST RECENT OCCURRENCE SHOWN)

         THU       FRI       SAT       SUN
        05/15     05/16     05/17     05/18
--------------------------------------------
AUS    96/2003   97/2018*  97/2018   97/2022
ATT    98/1925   99/2022*  99/2022   98/2022
SAT    98/2022   97/2022* 100/2022  101/2022
DRT   102/2022  107/2013  105/2013  107/2024

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              76  98  75  99 /  10  10  10  20
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  75  99  73  98 /  10  10  10  10
New Braunfels Muni Airport     75 100  75  99 /  10  10  10  10
Burnet Muni Airport            74  97  74  96 /   0  20  10  30
Del Rio Intl Airport           74 103  79 102 /   0   0  10  20
Georgetown Muni Airport        74  97  75  96 /  10  10  10  20
Hondo Muni Airport             73 102  73  99 /   0   0  10  10
San Marcos Muni Airport        74  99  74  99 /  10  10  10  10
La Grange - Fayette Regional   76  95  75  96 /   0   0   0  10
San Antonio Intl Airport       76 100  76  99 /   0  10  10  10
Stinson Muni Airport           76 101  77 100 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 2 PM to 7 PM CDT Friday for Atascosa-Bastrop-
Bexar-Caldwell-Comal-De Witt-Dimmit-Fayette-Frio-Gonzales-Guadalupe-
Hays-Karnes-Lavaca-Medina-Travis-Uvalde-Wilson-Zavala.

Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for Atascosa-Bexar-Frio-
Medina-Uvalde-Wilson.

&&

$$

Short-Term...17
Long-Term...76
Aviation...17